Corbyn and the Labour Party – taking the longer view?

Glen O'Hara  - Professor of Modern and Contemporary History, Oxford Brookes University

It seems almost inconceivable that Labour in 2020 will plumb the depths represented by that second result. There is no really convincing alternative on the left.  The eclipse of the Liberal Democrats as a credible national electoral force helps Labour enormously.  If the Lib Dems still had 50-60 parliamentary seats, and were still led by a left-leaning social democrat such as Charles Kennedy, then Labour might already be suffering mass defections – of voters, and probably of MPs too, in a situation analogous to the Social Democrats’ split from Labour in 1981.  Results for the Green Party in council by-elections, and the party’s stagnation in the polls, since the General Election suggest that this will be one of the only sources of new voters that Labour will be able to count on.  Many left-wing voters who had turned to the Greens in despair at Labour’s apparent compromise with economic orthodoxy and austerity seem to have found a congenial home in the new-look Labour Party.

Falling to 154 seats – as in 1935 – would seem less than likely, though if the Conservatives do achieve their boundary reforms it is by no means impossible. The polls probably exaggerated Labour’s ratings throughout the last Parliament, so reducing the size of the swing they are now experiencing as against 2011 (though only perhaps by two or three per cent).  If Labour’s vote falls, it will also become harder to squeeze, leaving behind more culturally- or ideologically-committed voters; the recent by-election in Oldham West, which Labour gained with a surprisingly strong majority of nearly 11,000 and an increase in its share of the vote of over seven per cent, is more than enough to see that effect working.

Of course, all of this is – so far – speculation. It is just possible (though it seems unlikely) that Labour might be able to mobilise non- or ex-voters, and regain the support of disillusioned left-wing citizens who have broken away to support the Scottish National Party in Scotland, or Plaid Cymru in Wales.  The huge number of elections due in May 2016 – for Police Commissioners, the London and Bristol Mayoralties, as well as for local councils, the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly – will tell us much more.  Only by comparing those results with the last time those contests were fought will we be able to see whether Labour’s apparently poor polling performance compared to previous Parliaments is a statistical artefact, or a real reflection of reduced public support for Labour under Corbyn and its adoption of a more left-wing policy platform.

The best conclusion from the evidence right now, however, is easy to summarise. Unless nothing changes radically, the best Labour can hope for in 2020 is another defeat that confines the Conservatives to only a very small majority, or in the absolute best case scenario limits them to forming a minority government that has to bargain with other parties to get its legislation through.  Neither case currently seems particularly likely: any historically-based projection must be for a heavy Labour defeat, extending in the very worst case to a rout that may take the party back to the level of representation it last had to suffer in 1935.  Many of Labour’s members and supporters seem resigned to, or even bullish about, that fate – believing that they can and should aim at shifting the terms of debate even if out of power for a generation.  It remains to be seen if the defeats and poll deficits that seem likely to occur during this Parliament will change that view.

Glen's blogs, in a personal capacity, at Public Policy and the Past, and can be followed on Twitter at @gsoh31